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Market focus on US inflation data

Volatility in the markets continues to be high. Yesterday, European markets attempted to bounce off two-year lows, playing back news of a telephone conversation between the US and China on trade issues. Today, the growth of equity markets continues. Europe adds an average of about one percent. Futures for US indices are also traded in the green. Despite the positive developments and the reduced risks of the China-USA confrontation, the US dollar is trading very firm. Yesterday, the US dollar index traded around one and a half year high - this is the 97.50 zone. Obviously, this is a market reaction to the threats of US President to shut down the government in the event Congress refuses to finance a wall with Mexico. Recently, any risk leads to an increased demand for the US dollar.

Markets have changed their expectations regarding the Fed's future actions to raise interest rates. If earlier it was expected that the Fed could raise the rate three times more in 2019, now most investors expect no more than one increase. In this context, data on the consumer price index (CPI), which will be presented in the USA today, may be very important for the market. According to forecasts, the base CPI should rise from 2.1% to 2.2%, the base CPI m / m will remain at 0.2%. Accordingly, in the current situation, any data below the forecast can put a lot of pressure on the dollar.

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