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Markets focus on ECB meeting and EU summit

Positive sentiment is returning back to the markets - on Thursday, global stock markets continue to gain. Futures on US indices are traded in the green, Europe is also gaining. Markets derive positive amid expectations of trade dispute settlement between the United States and China. However, high volatility will remain in the markets until the end of March, when the 90-day period to reach agreements expires. The American dollar shows a slight decline, but it still trades quite firm. On Wednesday US dollar index closed around 97 points quite close to 2 year high. The next reason for a positive market sentiment is that Prime Minister of Great Britain T. May has retained her post. However, the uncertainty around the conditions of Brexit remains open.

The main Thursday news is the latest meeting of the ECB this year. The markets do not expect any surprises from the European financial regulator. The regulator will leave interest rates unchanged, so investors will focus on the decision on the program of QE, the ending was previously announced in December. Even more important for investors will be President Mario Draghi comments, on the background of serious economic and political problems in the EU that may have a negative impact on the policies of the ECB as well. The regulator will present forecasts for the Eurozone economy.

The next positive news for the markets and another source of optimism is Italy’s agreement to make concessions to Brussels and a willingness to reduce the budget deficit in 2019.

In the FOREX market, the local weakening of the dollar and positive news support the European currency. EUR / USD strengthened to a two-day high and continues to trade positively. The nearest resistance is in the 1.1400 zone, the main support in the 1.1300 area.

The British pound has adjusted on the background of positive news from the EU summit and the resolution of the risks of a growing political crisis in the UK. The price reached the first serious area of resistance 1.2680-1.2700 where further upward move may stall.  Given the general fundamental background and the bearish trend, the market can reverse on the move. The bearish trend despite the local correction retains its strength, so the southern scenario in the medium term remains a priority.

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