European Central Bank decision and following press conference remains the main Thursday theme; and we are monitoring the developments of press-conference conference that has just begun. This week there was a lot of talks about a softer and more «dovish» ECB tone in the light of weaker economic data and negative risks for the Eurozone. However, all these talks and expectations lose their meaning at the same time, when market quotes begin to move with great speed, and volatility grows rapidly. We are seeing this type of picture right now on the chart of EUR / USD market.
It is interesting enough that during current trading week EUR/USD pair traded very restrained, remaining in a tight range like a compressed spring. We believe that this is only the beginning of a strong medium-term move.
So what happened? ECB chief made a small but significant adjustment to his introductory statement. In particular, the head of the European financial regulator said
“The risks associated with growth prospects for the euro area have increased due to the continuing uncertainties associated with geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism, vulnerability in emerging markets and volatility in financial markets”
Recall that in the last Dragh statement mentioned a significant increase in risks, and we can assume that the EU economy is already on the verge of a recession.
In response to the confirmation that the Eurozone economy is getting worse and worse, EURUSD fell to session lows, dropping to 1.1306, before bouncing back to 1.1377. European stock markets also turned reds and moved lower after the release of data. German DAX lost growth and moved to the area of discovery.
Higher volatility in FOREX market did influence USD dollar. Today we have received and interesting signal for USD dollar index confirming the market reversal and shift to bearish sentiment amid technical factors. If the trading session closes below 96 points level, this strong signal will turn even stronger.
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