On Wednesday, the EUR / USD currency pair formed a predominantly upward movement, but at the end of the day, buyers could not keep the price at the reached levels and as a result, the trades were completed with zero deviation relative to the opening price.
The most significant support factor for the US currency were the published FOMC protocols. Fed officials decided to suspend the process of normalizing interest rates in the country until they can more deeply and thoroughly determine the extent to which external and internal pressure factors affect the economy. However, some participants in the meeting believe that the US economy is still very strong and ready for at least one rate increase in 2019. Apparently, this was enough to provide the main support for the dollar index.
Also, investors drew attention to Trump's statement yesterday, in which he did not rule out the introduction of higher duties on European cars, unless the parties enter into a trade agreement. Further development of this situation will provide serious support to the dollar, which is viewed by investors as the main protective asset against trading risks, and put pressure on the European currency, which is already under strong pressure from economic problems in the EU.
Today, the market expects publication of a large block of statistical information from the EU and Europe.
In the EU, preliminary data on PMI indices of production and services sectors are of most interest. Investors will pay special attention to data from Germany, the economic situation in which causes the greatest concerns. Also today, at 15:30 Moscow time, the minutes from the last ECB meeting on monetary policy will be made public.
In the US, in addition to the news regarding the course of trade negotiations between the United States and China, traders will pay attention to the publication of data on orders for durable goods, sales on the secondary housing market and indices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
On the chart, first of all, we note the unsuccessful attempt of buyers to consolidate above the level of 1.1350. Everything ended with a false breakout, which is a strong reversal signal, indicating a continuation of the movement within the bearish trend, which remains dominant at more senior time intervals. The main target for this movement is still the level 1.1200. It is worth counting on continued upward movement only after the price consolidates above 1.1350.
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1450.
Levels of support: 1.1320, 1.1260, 1.1200.
The main scenario - decline to 1.1200
Alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1350 and growth to 1.1400
The news background for the currency pair remains moderately negative. On the chart there are signals for a reversal. Therefore, today we give preference to sales of that are to be found in the range of 1.1350-1.1360.
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