The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday was trading in a very narrow price range, with the actual absence of important economic news that could change the balance of the market.
The demand for the European currency remains low due to weak economic data, which was published in the first months of 2019. Investors are especially worried about the situation in Germany, where the growth rate of the economy is actively dropping to zero. One of the important factors of pressure on the euro is the situation associated with Brexit. Previously, many experts noted that uncontrolled British withdrawal from the EU would hit primarily the key countries of the region (Germany, France, Italy, etc.), which had closer economic ties with Foggy Albion.
The dollar has also recently lost its investment attractiveness. The prolonged shutdown did not give investors the opportunity to objectively assess the state of the US economy. The publication of many important economic reports was postponed to a later date. Do not help dollar also the trade negotiations between the United States and China, which, according to the statements of both parties, are moving very well.
But the main factor of pressure on the dollar remains the rhetoric of the Fed, which in early 2019 has undergone significant changes. The Fed decided to pause in the cycle of raising interest rates and now traders are trying to understand how long the regulator will keep interest rates unchanged and whether they can start a new phase of tightening monetary policy this year. In this vein, the semi-annual report of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which he will present today at the US Senate Banking Committee, will be very important for trading. This is the central event of today, which can have a very strong influence on the further course of trading, not only for the EUR / USD currency pair, but also for other instruments involving the dollar.
In the first half of the day, investors will follow the the situation in the UK, where today should be another parliamentary vote on issues related to Brexit.
On the chart, we see minimal changes from yesterday. The range continues to develop with borders at levels 1.1320-1.1360. Yesterday's attempt to overcome the upper limit of the price channel was not crowned with success. Nevertheless, taking into account the general trend of recent weeks, the priority now is the exit of the price from consolidation upwards, which will be a strong signal of further development of the bullish wave, whose immediate target will be the level of 1.1400.
Resistance Levels: 1.1360, 1.1400, 1.1450.
Levels of support: 1.1320, 1.1260, 1.1200.
The main scenario - growth to 1.1400
Alternative scenario - consolidation below 1.1320 and decline to 1.1260.
The fundamental background remains neutral. The chart retains the signals in favor of the price exit from the range 1.1320-1.1360 upwards. Therefore, preference is given to purchases that we are looking for near the 1.1340 level.
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