The EUR / USD pair held Friday trading very volatile, amid general uncertainty on the market. Strengthening the euro was hampered by weak internal statistics and the uncertainty associated with Brexit. The growth potential of the dollar in recent months has been limited by the dramatically changing Fed rhetorics and some signs of a slowdown in economic growth. The pressure on the US currency is also exerted by the US-China negotiations to conclude a bilateral trade agreement.
As a result, over the course of several months, investors cannot determine the further price vector and the EUR / USD currency pair continues to move in the price channel with the borders 1.13-1.15.
This week the main impact on the course of trading will have important economic news, which are expected at the end of the week. For the European currency, the central event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday, while the dollar will be mostly influenced by labor market data, which will be released on Friday. At the same time, in the first half of the week there will not be many important economic events, and it is likely that the trading will be fairly calm.
On Monday, there is no important news in the economic calendar of the USA and Europe.
On Tuesday, the focus will be on the data on PMI US services sector from ISM and the report on sales of new homes in the US. In Europe, investors will also follow the publication of the PMI of the services sector both for individual EU countries (focusing on data from Germany) and for the EU as a whole.
On Wednesday in the United States some representatives of the FOMC will have speaches. A monthly report from ADP on non-farm employment will also be presented. There are no major events scheduled for this day in Europe.
On Thursday in Europe will follow the publication of data on EU GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018 and the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. Later, the press conference will be held by the head of the department, Mario Draghi.
On Friday, a report on the construction sector will be published in the United States, but investors will focus on labor market data mostly. Of particular interest will be data on the number of newly created jobs and the dynamics of average wages.
There have been no major changes on charts for senior time intervals over the past few days. The main trades are still in the range of 1.1300-1.1400. Accordingly, while the price remains within the boundaries of the above-mentioned levels, the scenario with the development of movement in the horizontal direction remains the priority. It will be possible to count on the formation of a directional trend movement after fixing the price above the level of 1.1400, which makes the next target for the movement the mark of 1.1500, or in the case of a decline below 1.1300, which will highlight the option with a decline to 1.1200.
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500.
Levels of support: 1.1360, 1.1320, 1.1280.
The main scenario - growth to 1.1400.
An alternative scenario - consolidation below 1.1360 and decline to 1.1320.
The mixed news background remains on the market, and on the chart the movement continues in the range 1.1360-1.1400. Considering the current price position, we prefer to buy the currency pair locally, considering that the quotes will grow within the limits of the range from the level 1.1360 to 1.1400.
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