The pair EUR / USD was rather calm on Tuesday and ended trading at the opening price level, as there were no drivers on the market that could provoke sharp price movements.
In recent days, investor relations between the US and the EU have become the focus of investors, which have sharply worsened after the White House announced its intention to impose duties on a whole range of European goods, totaling $ 11 billion. Trump called these actions retaliatory measures against the subsidizing the Airbus company by the European Union. According to the WTO such subsidizing had a negative impact on the economy of the United States.
On the eve, the Italian Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that the Italian budget deficit in 2019 will be 2.4%, which is higher than the previously agreed level of 2.0% with the EU, which could aggravate further relations between official Rome and Brussels. Also in Italy, the forecast for economic growth rates for 2019 was lowered from 1.0% to 0.2%.
Today, the focus of investors will be on just three important events, each of which can radically change the situation on the market.
First, today the ECB will hold a meeting at which issues of possible changes in monetary policy will be discussed. Most experts agree that the regulator will not change the basic parameters of its monetary policy, but there are also opinions that amid the deteriorating economic situation, the ECB can expand incentive measures. Recall that this issue was discussed at the previous meeting of the regulator. If such a decision is made, the European currency may be under pressure.
Secondly, today there will be an extraordinary EU summit, at which the fate of Brexit will be decided. Now there is little doubt in the market that the EU will postpone Brexit, but the timing and conditions of the postponement of the UK exit date raise questions.
Thirdly, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting at which the regulator decided to revise plans for the implementation of monetary policy for 2019 will be made public today.
The graph has a rather uncertain situation. On the one hand, yesterday, buyers managed to keep the price above 1.1250, which retains the current option with the growth of quotations. On the other hand, we do not yet see a large activity of buyers, and further pressure increase at 1.1250 may lead to a breakdown of this level, which will make the option of price reduction towards 1.1193 more relevant for working off. At lower time intervals, it is worthwhile to closely monitor the price response to the level of 1.1275. Its breakdown is a good bullish signal. Rebound down - increases the likelihood of a bearish wave.
The main scenario is the breakdown of support at 1.1250 and a decline to 1.1193.
An alternative scenario is to keep prices above 1.1250 and rise to 1.1320.
There is high uncertainty in the market before the important events that will occur today. Therefore, we recommend so far to refrain from active trading in this instrument.
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