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EUR / USD: European statistics in focus and US-China trade relations

The EUR / USD pair finished trading on Friday on a positive note, due to the weakening dollar and the publication of good statistics from Europe.

On Friday, the EU published preliminary data on the consumer price index (CPI) for April, which recorded an increase in the indicator from 1.4% to 1.7%. At the same time, the base CPI rose from 0.8% to 1.2% over the month.

In the US, on Friday, the focus was on labor market data, which surprised everyone with a decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.6%, which is the minimum value over the past 49 years. Above market expectations were data on the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector. But, the dollar could not use this data to strengthen its position, because immediately after the publication of the labor market report a public discussion broke out between high-ranking officials of the White House and Fed representatives. US Vice President Mike Pence and White House Economic Advisor Lawrence Kudlow called on the Fed to lower interest rates to further stimulate the economy. Fed representatives defended the correctness of the current course, noting the absence of reasons for changing the level of rates. The dollar reacted to this discussion with a strong decline, supporting the EUR / USD pair.

Today in Europe, the focus will be on the PMI data of the service sector, but it is likely that economic, and not geopolitical, news will have a stronger impact on trading. On Sunday, Donald Trump made an unexpected announcement on his Twitter account that threatened further negotiations between the US and China to conclude a bilateral trade agreement. Trump threatened China with a new increase in duties.

During Friday's trading, buyers managed to defend support at the level of 1.1150, which makes the next target for the price movement the level of 1.1210, at which it will determine the further vector of the currency pair. Fixing above 1.1210 will open the way to 1.1260. A pullback from 1.1210 down will increase the likelihood of a decline in quotations to 1.1150.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1320.
  • Support levels: 1.1180, 1.1150, 1.1100.

The main scenario - growth to 1.1210.

An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1210 and growth to 1.1260.

A neutral news background is more likely to prevail on the market now, but there are signals on the chart towards the further development of a bullish momentum, so we consider longs that are worth looking for near 1.1180 and below within a day.

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