Gold maintains positive momentum due to increased investor interest in risk-free assets.
The focus of the market is still on the US-China trade. It became known yesterday that, despite Trump’s threats, the Chinese delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, will arrive in Washington to resume trade negotiations. Nevertheless, many investors fear the growth of tension, amid serious disagreements of the parties on a number of key issues. The editor-in-chief of the Global Times wrote the day before on his Twitter that the situation is much more serious than many Western media write, and the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict between the two largest economies in the world is intensifying.
Another risk factor remains the uncertainty associated with an increase in duties on Chinese goods at the end of this week, which Donald Trump announced earlier. Apparently, the final decision on this issue will be made on Friday and depending on the outcome of the new bilateral negotiations.
This morning, data on the trade balance were published in China. Investors in the first place drew attention to the unexpected decline in exports in April by 2.7%, against the projected growth rate of 2.3%. The volume of imports increased by 4.0%, while the forecast was -3.6%. The trade balance was 13.84B, while the forecast was 35.00B.
On the graph, the situation in general develops in accordance with our expectations. Yesterday, the price held another retest of 1279.50 level, from which a new bullish wave is now developing. Locally, price resistance is at 1287.50, but so far we have not seen much of the price reaction at this level, therefore in the near future we can expect movement towards the upper limit of the range 1287.50-1294.00.
Resistance Levels: 1287.50, 1294.00, 1310.00;
Support levels: 1279.50, 1270.00, 1263.50.
The main scenario - growth in the direction of 1294.00.
The alternative scenario is a decline to 1279.50.
Demand for gold remains high, amid continuing uncertainty about further trade relations between the United States and China. The chart also dominated by signals indicating the growth of quotations. Therefore, inside the day we consider longs, which should be looked for around the level of 1284.00, but a safer entry point is at the level of 1278.00, which was indicated in the previous review.
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