The EUR / USD pair yesterday was trading in a very narrow price range, since most investors took a wait-and-see attitude before the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress.
Powell’s expected speech yesterday did not have any impact on the market, because at the opening of the banking conference in Boston, the Fed Chairman did not touch on monetary policy issues. From the speeches of other FOMC members, investors drew attention to the statements made by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, who believes that the Fed should now take a wait and keep the interest rate at the current level.
Today, at a speech in Congress, Jerome Powell will not be able to avoid issues related to monetary policy, so investors will closely monitor his performance. Powell will start speaking in Congress at 14:00 GMT.
Also today, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be made public, but more recent comments from the Fed representatives will be more important for the market.
In Europe, among the most significant news, it is worth noting the statements of ECB representative Philip Lane, who hinted at a possible reduction in the interest rate, in order to achieve the target level of inflation in the Eurozone. Experts believe that with such statements, the regulator is gradually preparing the market to lower the rate by 0.10% and resume the QE program.
On the graph yesterday, the main goal was reached, at the level of 1.1200. But until we see a strong price reaction, which increases the likelihood of a breakdown of this level and a further decline in quotations in the direction of 1.1130. Accordingly, it is possible to count on the formation of a more or less strong kickback movement only after the currency pair is fixed above 1.1235.
The main scenario is the breakdown of support at 1.1200 and a decline to 1.1130.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1235 and growth to 1.1290.
The market is dominated by a negative fundamental background. There are no reversal signals on the chart. Intra-day, we still prefer shorts, which should be considered at the level of 1.1235.
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