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XAUUSD market technical outlook

Daily chart:

Midterm structure keeps downward tone so far, which is going to be actual only until the break of 1495.00 high. 

Thus we’ll see either a defense of this zone by sellers and as a consequence start of new strong downswing (watch the red arrow) or 1495.00 level will be broken driving to recovery of the quotes to the 1516.39-1519.17 region (watch the black trajectory).

H1-chart:

Local structure resides in an extreme phase of upward correction. Here it also can be well seen, that break of 1495.00 will lead to stabilizing of mid-term uptrend, therefore there is a high probability of activity from bears and as a consequence intraday struggle of players. Though it’s sellers, who have positioning advantage.

Conclusions:

Main scenario: Start of new downswing in direction 1480.00.

Alternative scenario: Break above 1495.00 and further growth towards 1500.00 and 1510.00.

Trading recommendations:

  1. Below 1495.00 - shorts towards 1480.00.

  2. Above 1495.00 - longs towards 1500.00 and 1510.00.

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