Gold prices are decreasing as investors have overestimated the risk of a full-blown military conflict between the United States and Iran.
The decline in gold prices occurred despite reports that the United States intends to strengthen its military presence in the Middle East and Tehran’s threat of retaliation against the US air strike and the assassination of General Kassem Soleimani last week. Geopolitical tensions remain in the spotlight of the market, but investors have now taken a wait-and-see approach, which contributes to the development of a corrective movement for all instruments that have strongly reacted to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Amid the conflict in the Middle East, news of trade negotiations between the US and China receded into the background. Meanwhile, some sources report that an interim trade agreement between the parties could be signed on January 15.
In addition to geopolitical news, economic news can have a significant impact on trading this week. Today, investors expect a publication of non-manufacturing sector PMI data from ISM for December. A report on the US labor market for December will be published later this week.
Regarding the graph, we note the strengthening of signals in the direction of the potential downward correctional movement. The bulls could not keep the price above the level of 1568.00. Now this level acts as a resistance level and we can expect further development of the downward movement in the direction of the levels of 1557.00 and 1547.00.
Resistance Levels: 1568.00, 1579.00, 1588.00;
Support Levels: 1557.00, 1547.00, 1530.00.
The main scenario - intraday decline towards 1557.00. Medium-term decline to 1547.00.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 1568.00 and an increase towards 1579.00.
The fundamental outlook is moderately negative. A correctional wave is gaining momentum on the chart. Within a daily framework, we consider shorts from the level of 1568.00.
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