The oil market partially recovered after the WTI and Brent quotes fell to 5-week lows. The recovery was due to the interim foreign trade agreement signed by the United States and China. Investors hope that this deal will have a positive impact on the dynamics of global energy demand. However, a cautious attitude remains as the United States has not lifted previously imposed trade restrictions on Chinese imports.
The US Department of Energy weekly report continues to provide significant pressure on the market. As part of the report, a decrease in oil reserves by 2.5 million barrels was recorded, with a forecast of -0.5 million barrels. But, over the same period of time, gasoline and distillate stocks increased by almost 15 million barrels. Such an increase in indicators is one of the highest in recorded history. Total US gasoline inventories are currently equal to 258.3 million barrels. This value is 3 million barrels higher than in the same period last year, and significantly higher than the average 10-year value for the second week of January, amounting to 239 million barrels.
The graph reflects an ambiguous situation. A downward trend continues to develop indicating that in the medium term we can expect a decline in quotations to around 55.05. However, locally there are prerequisites for the formation of corrective movement, the immediate goal for which may be the level of 59.00.
The main scenario - a decline towards 57.60 and an increase towards 59.00.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation below the level of 57.60 and a decline towards 56.70.
The fundamental outlook is moderately negative. The graph demonstrates prerequisites for the development of a correctional movement. Within the daily framework, we consider longs with moderate risks from the level of 57.60.
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