On Thursday, oil prices fell more than 4% amid falling global stock markets and Donald Trump's announcement that air links with Europe would be suspended for 30 days. According to representatives of the industry association, a travel ban, with the exception of the United Kingdom, will inflict a serious blow on US airlines. This unexpected step could mean a further drop in demand for jet and other fuels.
The situation on the market is aggravated by the threat of the appearance on the market of large quantities of even cheaper oil, since Saudi Arabia has promised to raise production to a record high against the backdrop of a price confrontation with Russia. Following Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates also announced plans to increase production. UAE National Oil Company, ADNOC, stated that it plans to increase oil sales in the future to 5 million barrels per day.
In fact, after the collapse of the OPEC + coalition, the market has lost its regulator and now the situation will be regulated by market mechanisms of the balance of supply and demand.
The chart is dominated by bearish signals. Bears pushed support at the level of 32.75. Quotes have already fallen to the next local level - 30.50. After the breakdown of this mark, the next target for price movement will be the level of 27.00.
The main scenario - a breakdown of support at 30.50 and a decline towards 27.00.
An alternative scenario - an increase towards 33.50.
The fundamental outlook is negative. We consider sales from levels of 31.90 and 33.70.
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