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Oil is still constrained in a flat

Since earlier today, the cost of WTI crude oil has grown by 0.3%, and Brent by 0.7%. The quotes were supported on Tuesday by reports of the American Energy Agency regarding a significant reduction in shale oil production in April. In addition, the situation on stock exchanges acts as a driver for rising oil prices. Major indices today are trading in the green zone due to the publication of more optimistic economic statistics from China and news about a decrease in the number of newly detected cases of coronavirus infection around the world. Investors hope for a gradual weakening of quarantine measures and the restoration of economic activity. This will contribute to an increase in energy demand, which has declined by almost a third in recent months.

 

In general, it is worth noting that the previously reached OPEC + agreement regarding a significant decline in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day was received rather calmly. This decision was quite expected and coincided with the forecasts of most experts. Meanwhile, many experts remain skeptical about the further dynamics of oil prices. The imbalance towards excess production will continue as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put pressure on the global economy. Many experts do not rule out the possibility of retesting of the $20 mark in the coming weeks.

 

The trading is still constrained within the horizontal channel of 26.90-30.30. Now the price is in the middle of the flat, so the option with the development of consolidation in the marked price range remains a priority.

 

  • Resistance levels: 30.30, 33.75, 35.70.

 

  • Support levels: 26.90, 25.50, 23.20.

 

The main scenario - a flat in the range 26.90-30.30.

 

An alternative scenario - a breakdown of support at the level of 26.90 and a decline towards the level of 25.50.

 

The fundamental outlook is neutral. Within the daily framework, we consider shorts near the level of 30.30.

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