On Thursday oil prices continue to recover due to verbal interventions of the White House. Apparently, Donald Trump decided to use his favorite and well tested way to influence the market through Twitter messages. Yesterday, unexpectedly, Trump announced that the United States would destroy any Iranian military vessels if they pursue US ships.
None of the experts took these statements seriously. Obviously, by visibility of the aggravation of relations with Iran, Donald Trump decided to locally support the oil price. Nevertheless, investors responded to Trump's statements and began to partially fix short positions, which now contributes to the development of a correctional movement after a strong decline in quotations at the beginning of the trading week.
Another support factor for the market includes reports that US oil producers began to gradually reduce production. But, in our opinion, this news will not be able to have a positive impact on the market for a long period of time. The market situation remains difficult. OPEC + countries were not able to quickly respond to the problem of oversupply. Reduction of production quotas will occur only in May, but, apparently, the agreed level will not be enough to stabilize the market situation, at least until quarantine restrictions imposed around the world are lifted.
Regarding the chart, the correctional wave reached resistance at the level of 17.50. From this mark, we can expect a decline in quotations towards the level of 15.00. Further price movement will depend on the test results of the level of 15.00. If the level is broken, we can expect the 11.50 retest. If buyers keep the price above 15.00 - we can expect a breakdown of resistance at the level of 17.50.
The main scenario - a decline towards the level of 15.00.
An alternative scenario - a breakdown of resistance at the level of 17.50 and an increase towards 20.35.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We would still prioritize shorts. Entry points are to be sought after around the level of 17.50.
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