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XAUUSD market technical outlook

Daily chart:

Current situation is complicated for trading as well as for predictions. The problem is that the structure already has a full-scale upswing but at the same time it doesn’t have a break of the last high (1746.24).

This means that we have equal probability of either extension of growth to 1746.24 (black trajectory) or development of tangible downward correction in direction of the pivot-zone 1643.31-1659.21 (red arrow).

H1-chart:

Local structure has a reversal bearish pattern Over&Under, therefore a more likely scenario now is downward reversal (red arrow). But, here we have the same issue! The pattern is very fragile. Bulls just need to break the 1718.39 high to cancel the downward direction (black arrow).

Let’s monitor. What else can we do?

Conclusions:

Main scenario: Decline in direction 1700.00 and lower.

Alternative scenario: Break above 1718.39 and further growth in direction 1746.24.

Trading recommendations:

  1. Below 1718.39 - shorts to 1700.00.

  2. Above 1718.39 - longs to 1746.24.

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