On Tuesday, the price of gold fell by more than 0.8% amid weakening quarantine measures introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic in most countries of the world. Quarantine mitigation was announced in the coming weeks in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, etc. Certain American States gradually remove restrictions. Investors hope that the peak of the pandemic has already passed and the global economy will gradually recover after the shock.
Gold has a negative impact on the dynamics of the US treasury bonds and the dollar index. Over the past day, the yield on 10-year securities increased from 0.601 to 0.672 points. The USD since the beginning of the day rose by almost 0.15%. Therefore, the local fundamental background for gold is negative.
If we consider a longer perspective,gold retains a good opportunity for the further development of the long-term bull trend. Experts note that even after removing all restrictive measures, the global economy will not be able to recover from the shock for a long time. The Central Banks and governments will increase incentive programs, increasing liquidity. Under these conditions, gold will remain very popular as the main anti-crisis asset.
Concerning the economic calendar today, it is worth paying close attention to the April data on the consumer confidence index. Experts expect the indicator to drop from 120.0 to 87.9 points.
Regarding the chart, the price fell to the support of 1695.00. From current positions, we can expect a development of a retreat towards the level of 1722.00. In case of breakdown of support at 1695.00, we should expect a development of a downward movement towards the level of 1675.00.
Resistance Levels: 1722.00, 1740.00, 1755.00;
Support Levels: 1695.00, 1675.00, 1645.00.
The main scenario - growth towards the level of 1722.00.
An alternative scenario - consolidation below the level of 1695.00 and a decline towards 1675.00.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. Regarding the chart, the price bounced up from the support level of 1695.00. For the short-term, we consider longs with moderate risks from the level of 1695.00.
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