Oil prices are now near the opening levels of today. API data had a rather weak effect on trading. According to the report for the week, the level of reserves increased by 8.4 million barrels. This is below the forecast of 9.98 million barrels, but stocks continue to grow, indicating a continuing imbalance towards the excess of supply.
In the next few weeks the main oil storage facilities may be full, which may lead to another collapse of oil prices. The market remains vulnerable. The problem of excess supply has not been resolved, while the volume of backup storage continues to decline. The process of normalizing energy demand may drag on for months, so oil prices will remain under pressure in the near future.
Today investors are expecting the publication of weekly stock data from the US Department of Energy. The growth rate is expected to be at 7.76 million barrels. Figures above the forecast values can put very strong pressure on oil prices.
Today buyers tested the level of 26.90, from which the price rebounded very strongly. Now the pressure is increasing at the level of 25.50. That is why we consider development of a downward movement towards the level of 23.20 to be the main scenario.
The main scenario - a consolidation below the level of 25.50 and a decline towards 23.20.
An alternative scenario - an increase towards the level of 26.90.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We consider the shorts from the level of 26.05.
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