Despite the publication of more positive data on the dynamics of stocks in the US, oil prices resumed their downward movement.
According to the report from the US Ministry of Energy, which was presented on Wednesday, over the week oil reserves in the country grew by 4.59 million barrels, which is lower than the forecast of 7.76 million barrels. Nevertheless, the volume of oil reserves continues to increase, indicating a continuing imbalance in the direction of excess supply. Also, the US Department of Energy reported a decrease in production by 200 thousand barrels to 11.9 million. In March, US oil producers set a record of 13.1 million barrels.
Despite the decline in production in OPEC + and the USA, free reserves for oil storage continue to decline. This increases the risk of a new collapse in oil prices to historical lows.
Energy demand is recovering too slowly, and this recovery rate is not enough to balance the oil market. Therefore, in May, energy prices will remain under pressure.
Regarding the chart, bears continue to keep the price below 25.50, which creates good prospects for the further development of a downward movement towards the level of 23.20.
The main scenario - a decline towards 23.20.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above the level of 25.50 and growth towards 26.90.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We consider shorts from the level of 25.50.
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