WTI crude oil price at the start of the trading week increased by more than $ 1.5 amid a decline in production and signs of an increase in energy demand due to a gradual weakening of quarantine measures in many countries of the world. The price of Brent rose by more than $ 1.3.
Despite the local growth of quotations, many experts remain cautious and expect a repetition of the situation that occurred a month ago. In April, for the first time in history, WTI futures’ prices fell to negative values. The problem with oil storage reserves remains relevant, so investors can again begin selling the asset before the expiration of the current futures contract, which will take place on May 19.
A serious deterrent to the market may be news of the growing tensions between the United States and China. Representatives of the White House on the weekend again accused China of spreading the virus and threatened with new sanctions and restrictions. Washington has blocked the supply of processors for the Chinese giant Huawei Technologies. This may be followed by retaliatory actions by China and further escalation of the conflict.
So far, investors have ignored these events, focusing on news about the dynamics of supply and demand. But, in our opinion, the prospects for further restoration of oil prices will be limited. The risks of resuming downward movement will only increase.
Regarding the chart, the price crossed the level of 30.30, paving the way for further growth in the direction of 32.10. After updating this local maximum, we can expect the formation of reversal signals down.
The main scenario - an increase towards 32.10 and further downward movement.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation below the level of 30.30 and a decline in the direction of 26.90.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts in the range 32.10-32.50.
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