Oil prices remain in a positive territory, despite growing tensions between the US and China. However, many experts note that most likely today the further increase in the price of black gold will be limited due to a less risky attitude of investors and a holiday in the United States.
Protests flared up in Hong Kong over the intention of the Chinese authorities to introduce a new bill that would restrict the rights and freedoms of citizens and violate the terms of the Sino-British declaration guaranteeing Hong Kong wide special rights until 2047. This bill also fiercely criticized the United States. Representatives of the White House are discussing the possible imposition of sanctions against China, if this bill is approved. This would lead to a worsening situation in the global economy and could seriously harm the positive trends that have developed in the oil market in recent weeks.
Due to the decline in production and the restoration of demand, the market gradually started to return to the balance between supply and demand. A new conflict between the world's largest economies could upset this fragile balance.
Today is a holiday in the US, so trading is likely to be fairly calm. The market will be influenced mostly by the news of geopolitics.
Regarding the chart, the situation has not changed significantly. The main resistance level for the price remains at the level of 34.00. Today we are unlikely to see a breakdown of this level, therefore, as a priority, we consider the scenario with a decline in quotations towards 32.10.
The main scenario - a decline towards 32.10.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation above the level of 34.00 and growth towards 35.70.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts from the level of 34.00 with very moderate risks.
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