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Oil prices decline due to lower forecasts for demand and growing conflict between the US and China

Brent and WTI crude oil are both constrained in the red zone on Wednesday. Investors are responding to reports of a weak recovery in US fuel demand and Donald Trump's allegations of sanctions on China.

 

Despite the fact that many states have eased quarantine measures and lifted restrictions on the movement of citizens, ANZ Research experts reported that, according to preliminary estimates, gas demand will decrease by 30% compared to last year. Many citizens decided to abandon their traditional summer trips, fearing the onset of a second wave of pandemic.

 

Many experts started talking about the expected balancing of the oil market in June-July, which is too optimistic of a forecast. The risks of starting a second wave of pandemic and new restrictive measures remain very high.

 

New statements by Washington and Beijing seriously spoiled investor sentiment. Donald Trump announced new possible sanctions against China. In response, Beijing threatened to retaliate against any unfriendly US actions. Investors fear a worsening situation in the global economy, which is already under pressure due to the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Today, investors will follow the publication of the latest stock API data.

The bulls could not gain a foothold above the level of 34.00. Gradually, the price was turned down again. Today we expect the prevalence of bearish sentiment in the market and the development of a downward movement in the direction of the level of 32.10.

 

  • Resistance levels: 34.00, 35.70, 36.50.

 

  • Support levels: 32.10, 31.50, 30.30.

 

The main scenario - a decline towards 32.10.

 

An alternative scenario - a consolidation above the level of 34.00 and growth in the direction of 35.70.

 

The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We would prioritize shorts. Entry points should be expected in the range of 34.00-34.40.

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