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Oil growth is constrained by the Sino-American tensions

Oil prices maintain a moderately upward movement vector, but further growth is hampered by growing tensions between the United States and China.

 

Investors are cautious after the Chinese government announced that state-owned companies Cofco and Sinograin have suspended imports of US soybeans and other US agricultural products since Monday. A partial refusal to purchase American pork was also reported. These actions jeopardize the agreements reached in the first phase of trade negotiations between the US and China. And significantly reduce expectations for a faster recovery in energy demand from the largest economies in the world.

 

The main support factor for the oil market remains the expectations associated with the OPEC meeting, at which a decision can be made to extend the agreements reached earlier to limit production.

 

In the coming days, investors will also follow the publication of industry statistics from the United States. The stock API data will be published today. On Wednesday, the market awaits a weekly report by the US Department of Energy.

 

Regarding the chart, the price continues to consolidate in a narrow range, gradually increasing pressure at the level of 35.70. As a priority, we still consider the scenario with the breakdown of this mark and further growth towards 36.50.

 

  • Resistance levels: 36.50, 38.00, 40.00.

 

  • Support levels: 34.75, 34.00, 32.40.

 

The main scenario - a breakdown of resistance at the level of 35.70 and growth towards 36.50.

 

An alternative scenario - a decline towards 34.00.

 

The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We would consider longs from the level of 34.55.

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