On Tuesday, oil prices restored a small part of the lost positions on the eve. The situation on the stock exchanges has a positive effect on trading. Investors hope for a faster recovery of the global economy, which will entail an increase in energy consumption.
At the same time, traders continue to follow the news from Libya. On Monday, oil prices dipped after reports of recovery in production at the two largest Libyan fields. But, on Tuesday, information appeared that the Libyan National Oil Corporation had ordered employees to close the Sharare field a few hours after the start of maintenance work. It is reported that armed formations again entered the field.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe the upward oil rally should end. In the coming weeks, experts expect a drop in oil prices due to the uncertainty about energy demand and the “frightening” level of reserves. OPEC's decision to extend the agreement to limit production was already included in the price, so the market reaction to this event was very restrained.
Today, investors will follow the publication of data on commercial oil reserves from the API.
On the chart, the price tested support at 38.80. The development of the retreat is locally hindered by the 38.80 mark. From this level today we expect the resumption of the downward movement and the breakdown of support at 38.00.
The main scenario is a decline from current levels in the direction of 36.50.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of intraday resistance at 38.80 and an increase to 40.00.
The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider shorts from the level of 38.80.
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