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API data constrains oil prices

On Wednesday oil prices were constrained in a narrow range which was located in the region of last week’s minimums. The market is expecting the publication of weekly industry statistics from the United States.

 

According to the API report for the week, the inventory level increased by 1.7 million barrels, with the forecast of +0.3 million barrels. At the same time, the level of gasoline and distillate reserves decreased, which inspires optimism regarding the further increase in fuel consumption amid weakening of quarantine restrictions. As part of the EIA report released today, stocks are expected to rise by 0.3 million barrels.

 

However, the market remains concerned about the growing number of cases of coronavirus in the United States and other countries. The further spread of the pandemic could severely limit the pace of global economic recovery and energy demand.

 

China, the world's largest oil importer, is expected to slow oil imports in the 3rd quarter after record purchases in recent months. The increase in purchases was associated with a sharp decline in energy prices. Higher prices will negatively affect demand.

 

Regarding the chart, the bulls continue to keep the price above the level of 39.75, which increases the likelihood of further bull trend. In the near future we can expect reaching the level of 41.10 again. In case of a breakdown, the next target will be the level of 42.00.

 

  • Resistance levels: 41.10, 42.00, 43.50.

 

  • Support levels: 40.00, 38.50, 36.80.

 

The main scenario - an increase towards the level of 41.00.

 

An alternative scenario - consolidation below 39.75 and a decline to 38.50.

 

The current fundamental outlook remains neutral. We would consider longs from the level of 39.75.

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