Oil demonstrates positive dynamics after the publication of oil reserves data from API. The inventory level unexpectedly fell by 8.2 million barrels (with a forecast of -2.7 mln barrels), which indirectly indicates the restoration of energy demand, despite the further spread of coronavirus and new restrictive measures.
Another positive news for the market was a survey conducted by Reuters, which showed that OPEC countries reduced production to the lowest level in two decades. The countries participating in the cartel in June produced approximately 22.6 million barrels per day, which is 1.9 million barrels lower than in May. This data indicates that OPEC countries have complied with the terms of the agreement to limit production by 107%.
In general, macroeconomic statistics from key regions of the world continue to exert a positive influence on the oil market. Recently published data from China, the United States and Europe indicates a recovery in activity of the key economic sectors. Considering the above, investors expect a further recovery in energy demand.
Today the market will be focused on the weekly EIA data. A decrease in reserves of 0.7 million barrels is expected. The API data increases the likelihood that contraction will be stronger. The market may continue to move up.
Regarding the chart, we note the increase in upward pressure on the level of 39.75. Today we are expecting a breakdown of this mark and growth to 41.10.
The main scenario - a breakdown of resistance at 39.75 and an increase to 41.10.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation in the range of 38.50-39.75.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We would consider longs from the level of 38.90.
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