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Oil market awaits the OPEC monitoring committee meeting

Oil prices are under pressure today after several media outlets reported that OPEC countries consider easing restrictions on oil production from August 1.

 

A meeting of the OPEC monitoring committee will be held on July 15. It is expected that during this event cartel participants will discuss the topic of increasing oil production by 2 million barrels per day. The OPEC + leaders substantiate their decision by restoring energy demand and stabilizing oil prices at levels acceptable to them.

 

It’s important to note that on Friday the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for oil demand for 2020 by 0.4 million barrels per day.

 

There is also news on the market that can locally support oil prices. On Friday, Libya announced the resumption of oil exports, but on Sunday there were reports that deliveries were again suspended due to a military blockade. Libya accuses the UAE in regards to the military blockade.

 

Investors are closely monitoring oil supplies from Venezuela. The media reported on the tightening of the US position regarding oil supplies from this country. American companies refused to certify and insure vessels involved in the transportation of oil from Venezuela. US sanctions have led oil exports from Venezuela to their lowest level in 80 years.

 

Regarding the chart, buyers returned prices to the range of 39.80-41.10. Today we are expecting  the development of a moderate upward price movement to the upper part of the price channel.

 

  • Resistance levels: 41.10, 42.00, 44.00.

 

  • Support levels: 39.80, 38.70, 37.00.

 

The main scenario - an increase to 41.10.

 

An alternative scenario - a decline below 39.80 and a drop to 38.70.

 

The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We would consider longs with very moderate risks from the level of 39.80.

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