Gold continues to set new all-time highs after breaking through the $ 2,000 per ounce level.
The main driver of growth in quotations is still the weak US dollar and the negative dynamics of the movement of the US Treasuries with the real yield being in the negative zone. In this situation, investors are actively buying gold and other defensive assets. Over the week, gold grew by more than 3% (+ 13% per month), silver by more than 9% (+ 43% per month), platinum by 1% (+ 15% per month).
Today, a mixed news background is forming on the market, which locally may prevent further growth in gold prices. The news came as a surprise to many that the US and China will hold a high-level meeting on August 15 to discuss issues related to the implementation of the interim trade agreement signed earlier this year.
Declining demand for defensive assets may also be helped by reports that Republicans and Democrats have made progress in negotiating a new economic aid program. Both sides positively assessed the talks held the day before and announced the possible completion of the process by the end of the week.
Technical factors will also put pressure on gold. Many speculative investors will fix their positions against the backdrop of rising gold prices well above $ 2,000.
In the economic calendar today it is worth paying attention to 2 events: the publication of the monthly ADP report on the labor market and the ISM data on the PMI of the non-manufacturing sector for June.
The bullish trend continues to develop on the chart. A new benchmark for us is the level of 2030.00. A “false breakout” reversal signal can be formed on the intraday chart, within which a rollback movement can be expected to develop to 2000.00.
Resistance levels: 2030.00, 2040.00, 2050.00;
Support levels: 2000.00, 1981.00, 1963.00.
The main scenario - a decline to 2000.00 from the current levels.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation in the range of 2030.00-2040.00.
The current fundamental outlook is positive. We would consider longs when the price rolls back around the 2000.00 mark.
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