On Thursday, gold maintains an upward trend and is trading near yesterday's highs.
The general fundamental background on the market has practically not changed. We are witnessing a continuing decline in the US dollar exchange rate, a decline in the US Treasury yield curve and an increase in inflationary expectations. This means that for the foreseeable future, gold and other defensive assets will remain the most attractive assets for investment and risk diversification.
An additional driver of the rise in gold prices is the economic and political uncertainty both in the United States and in the world.
Economic problems are primarily associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A difficult epidemiological situation remains in the United States. On Thursday, Melbourne authorities announced the start of a new 6-week quarantine, which will close most of the city's shops and businesses.
US-China relations remain an important factor of uncertainty. Recently Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, announced unprecedented tensions between the two countries. US actions to send ships to the South China Sea significantly increase the risk of an already military conflict between the two countries.
In the economic calendar today, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
The bullish trend continues to actively develop on the chart. There are no reversal signals. During the day, we expect a breakdown of the level of 2055.00 and further growth in quotations.
Resistance levels: 2055.00, 2070.00, 2090.00;
Support levels: 2030.00, 2000.00, 1981.00.
The main scenario - a decline to 2030.00 from current levels and a renewed upward movement.
An alternative scenario - growth from current levels.
The current fundamental outlook is positive. We consider longs when the price rolls back to the levels of 2030.00 and 2000.00.
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