Today, oil is trading in a fairly narrow range, maintaining the potential for further development of the upward movement.
Investors are positive about Reuters' reports that OPEC + countries are almost fully complying with the terms of the agreement to limit production. The degree of implementation of the agreement is estimated at 95%. This figure is planned to increase to 97% due to a reduction in production in Mexico. The meeting of the joint monitoring committee at the ministerial level of the OPEC + countries will take place on Wednesday, August 19.
In the coming days, investors will also be expecting the release of industry statistics from the US. API stocks are due out today late in the day, and the EIA will release a weekly report on Wednesday. The data of recent weeks indicate a steady downward trend in US oil reserves.
The USD dynamics still have a positive impact on all commodity assets. The dollar index has dropped by more than 0.3% since the beginning of the day. Oil and other commodity assets are becoming cheaper for foreign investors.
The level of 42.90 is broken and has no effect on the price. Today we expect the formation of a moderate recoil movement to the 42.65 area and the resumption of the upward movement to 43.75.
The main scenario - a rollback to 42.65 and growth in the direction of 43.75.
An alternative scenario - a pullback to 42.15 and growth in the direction of 43.75.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs from levels 42.65 and 42.15.
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