Oil prices are moderately declining today, despite the publication of positive API data on reserves.
According to the report for the week, the level of oil reserves decreased by 4.26 million barrels, against the forecast of -2.9 million barrels. Later today will be published a weekly report by the EIA. Experts expect a decline in reserves by 2.67 million barrels. API data indicate actual values may be below forecast expectations.
Several factors are exerting moderate pressure on oil prices today. First, investors were disappointed by the statistics from Japan. Japanese exports continue to decline for the 20th month in a row. A drop in production is inevitably accompanied by a decrease in demand for energy resources. Second, investors are expressing concern about a further recovery in US energy demand, as Congress was unable to pass a new stimulus package. Third, the market is reacting negatively to growing tensions between the US and China. The day before, Donald Trump announced the postponement of a new round of negotiations on a trade agreement. Investors fear the outbreak of a new trade war.
In addition to EIA data on reserves, today investors will follow the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+. OPEC+ members should discuss the extent to which countries are meeting their production quotas. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak is expected to join the video meeting, despite testing positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday.
During the day, the situation on the chart has not fundamentally changed. Upward movement remains a priority. We consider the 42.50 level as intraday support. The medium-term target for growth is the level of 43.75.
The main scenario - a decline to 42.50 and a renewed upward movement.
An alternative scenario - growth from current levels.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider longs from the levels of 42.50 and 42.15.
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