Today gold is trying to recover from a strong decline in quotations that took place yesterday. The published minutes of the FOMC meeting provoked a fairly strong strengthening of the USD, which led to a slight decline of gold prices. The minutes showed that, according to the leaders of the Central Bank, to prevent a deeper and more prolonged recession in the economy, an increase in government spending will be required. At the same time, the FRS did not outline further plans to change monetary policy and use new instruments, and the prospects for the recovery of the US economy remain uncertain.
The next guideline for investors is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place on August 27-28. Perhaps at this meeting more detailed plans of the regulator for the implementation of monetary policy will become known.
Gold could also be pressured by news from Bloomberg that the US and China are ready to resume trade negotiations and the parties are now developing a schedule for new meetings.
Today, most likely, the US dollar will retain its dominant influence on gold. In the afternoon, investors await the publication in the US of weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits and indexes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia for August.
Regarding the chart, we note the local dominance of shorts. The bears pushed through the intermediate support levels without any problems, so today we expect a further downward movement. The target is the level of 1914.00.
• Resistance levels: 197100, 1993.00, 2030.00.
• Support levels: 1914.00, 1875.00, 1850.00.
The main scenario - an increase to 1971.00 and a decline in the direction of 1914.00.
An alternative scenario - a decline to 1914.00 from current levels.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts in the area of the 1971.00 level.