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Oil rises due to weakening dollar and release of encouraging macroeconomic data from China

On Tuesday, oil prices rise thanks to the weakening of the dollar and the publication of encouraging macroeconomic data from China

 

Today, the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since April 2018, driving the price of all commodity assets higher. They are becoming more attractive to global buyers.

 

A good driver for the growth of risk appetite was the data on the PMI of the Chinese manufacturing sector from Caixin Media Co. In August, the indicator rose to 53.1 points, which is almost the highest value in the last ten years of observation. The growth of the indicator was provided by strong domestic and foreign demand, as well as the acceleration of production rates. Investors hope that the recovery in production will be accompanied by an increase in demand for energy. China is one of the largest consumers of raw materials in the world.

 

In anticipation of the publication of data on US reserves from API, a Reuters poll showed that analysts expect a decrease in inventories by 2 million barrels (-4.524 million barrels last week), gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels, distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

 

The price remains flat at 42.60-43.75. The lower border of the flat was tested yesterday. Today we expect the quotes to rise to 43.75.

 

  • Resistance levels: 43.75, 45.00, 46.00.

 

  • Support levels: 42.60, 41.80, 41.40.

 

The main scenario - an increase to 43.75.

 

Alternative scenario - a decline from current levels to 42.60 and a breakdown of this mark.

 

The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs near the level of 42.60.

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