Gold is moving in different directions today, in response to mixed statistics from China and reports of a record increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19.
China released customs data for August, which showed that exports rose by 9.5% year-on-year in August, beating the 7.2% rise in July. At the same time, imports for the same period decreased by 2.1% on an annualized basis. In July, the volume of imports decreased by 1.4%. The data points to a rapid recovery in exports, driven by a recovery in the global economy and external demand, but domestic consumption in the country continues to decline.
Over the weekend, Johns Hopkins University recorded a record daily increase in cases of COVID-19 - 304,626 people. The previous record was recorded on August 14, when 304,351 infected were detected per day. Almost 27 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide as of September 7, according to Johns Hopkins University. India came in second in terms of the number of infected.
Investors are worried about the acceleration in the spread of the virus, which could significantly slow down the global economic recovery or lead to a new recession. Against this background, gold remains the main defensive asset.
Labor Day will take place today in the US. We expect calm trades, especially during the American trading session. There are no important events in the macroeconomic calendar.
On Friday, the price tested the level of 1914.00. This is a very strong support level from which a fairly strong upward movement can be expected to form. The intraday target is at 1947.00.
The main scenario - a moderate rise to 1947.00.
Alternative scenario - a decline and a retest at 1914.00
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. Within the day, we consider longs near the level of 1914.00
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