On Thursday, oil prices came under pressure again due to concerns about an increasing imbalance in the energy market.
Late Wednesday, the API released its weekly oil inventory data. After 6 weeks of continuous reduction, during the reporting week, oil reserves increased by almost 3 million barrels. Weekly data from the EIA will be released later. Experts predict a decline in reserves by 1.3 million barrels. The API report shows that actual values can be significantly worse than predicted values.
In fact, the API data confirmed the fears of experts, who expected a decrease in energy demand in the fall due to the end of the active summer season in the United States and the suspension of some large refineries due to scheduled maintenance.
OPEC countries have published information on the degree of fulfillment of the terms of the previously reached agreement to cut oil production. According to this data, the agreement was fulfilled by 103% in August, against 96% in July. It is worth noting here that in August the OPEC + countries decided to increase production by 1.9 million barrels per day. Therefore, the actual production in August rose by 1.3 million barrels per day.
A correctional wave is developing on the chart. The nearest strong resistance level is at 39.50. Therefore, today we can see the continuation of the correctional wave, but the downward movement remains the priority in the medium term.
The main scenario - a decline to 37.30 and an increase to 39.50.
An alternative scenario - an increase to 39.50 and a decline to 37.30.
The current fundamental outlook is negative. We consider shorts from the level of 39.50
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