WTI crude oil on Tuesday traded with almost zero dynamics. Positive statistics from China are completely offset by pessimistic market expectations regarding further dynamics of energy demand.
Oil market sentiment remains gloomy due to disappointing demand forecasts from oil producers, as well as the acceleration in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries, which could lead to the introduction of new tough quarantine measures.
The positive report of the National Bureau of Statistics had little effect on investor sentiment. China reported a 5.6% increase in production in August, after rising 4.8% a month earlier. For the first time in 7 months, retail sales also increased. The growth was 0.5% against the forecast of 0.0%. This data indicates a recovery in China's economy, which is the world's largest energy consumer.
Investors continue to watch for news of the spread of Hurricane Sally, which is now Category 2 with the potential to intensify further. This is the second major storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the past month. Oil producers have mothballed part of the oil production platforms until the weather conditions improve in the region.
In the economic calendar today, it is worth paying attention to the API data on commercial oil reserves.
On Monday, the bulls were unable to build on the success and continue the development of the corrective wave. Bears are increasing pressure to the 37.30 level. Today we are expecting a breakdown of this mark and a decline in quotations to 36.60.
The main scenario - a breakdown of support at 37.30 and a decline to 36.60.
Alternative scenario - growth in the direction of 38.70.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts with moderate risks from the level of 37.80.
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