At the beginning of the European trading session, oil prices resumed their upward movement. The growth is likely due to the stabilization of the dollar. The dollar index is now almost unchanged.
In recent days,USD has strengthened strongly, putting pressure on all assets of the commodity sector.
Even more pressure on the price is exerted by sharply increased fears about the prospects for a global economic recovery in connection with the intensification of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. A slowdown in the global economic recovery, and possibly a new wave of decline, will inevitably lead to a reduction in global energy demand. The market may again experience an imbalance towards oversupply.
Messages from Libya are another bearish factor for the market. After months of blockade, the country is ready to resume oil supplies to the non-international market. The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) wants to increase production to 260,000 barrels per day by next week. This is significantly less than the volume of previous supplies, which reached 1.2 million barrels per day, but Libya intends to gradually increase production.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released stock data on Wednesday. The volume of oil reserves for the week decreased by 1.639 mln. barrels against the forecast of -2.325 mln. barrels Investors reacted even more negatively to the information that the demand for gasoline in the USA fell by 9% compared to the same period last year.
The bulls were able to defend support at 39.15. This is a good signal in favor of a moderate recovery in quotes with a local target at 40.50.
The main scenario is growth to 40.50.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation below 39.15 and a decline to 38.60.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We consider longs with very moderate risks from the level of 39.15.
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