EUR / USD is trading in a limited range today, holding close to yesterday's intraday highs. Investors took a wait and see attitude before the speeches of the heads of the world's leading central banks at the virtual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics.
The positive news for the European currency was the data on production orders in Germany released today. In August, the volume of orders unexpectedly increased by 4.5%, against the forecast of + 2.6%. Furthermore, an increase from + 2.8% to + 3.3%, for the previous month was revised. Macroeconomic data shows the continuing recovery trend in a key sector of the German economy. Data on industrial production for the same period will be published tomorrow.
The central event of today will be the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the NABE conference, which will be held in virtual mode in connection with the pandemic. Despite the high expectations of this event on the part of investors, in our opinion, its impact on the market will be very limited. Recently, Jerome Powella and Christine Lagarde have repeatedly commented on the current monetary policy and have clearly outlined plans for its possible adjustment. Today they are unlikely to be able to provide the market with new information that could affect the general expectations of investors.
In the US, investors also continue to follow the talks between the US Treasury Secretary and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to agree on a new package of economic assistance measures. A positive outcome of the discussion may have a strong local impact on the dynamics of the dollar.
There are no important macroeconomic reports on the economic calendar today. The overall fundamental background for the EUR / USD pair remains moderately positive.
On the chart, a strong resistance at 1.1800 was tested. Now trades are in the range of 1.1770-1.1800. The price exit from consolidation will determine the further medium-term price movement vector. Breakdown of the level 1.1800 will open the way to 1.1865. A decline below 1.1770 is a signal of a possible pullback movement in the direction of 1.1700.
The main scenario - a breakdown of resistance at 1.1800 and an increase to 1.1865.
An alternative scenario - a consolidation below 1.1770 and a decline to 1.1700.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs in the range between the levels of 1.1750-1.1770.
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