The EUR / USD pair is trading in the red on Tuesday (-0.13%) amid moderate strengthening of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.
The demand for the US currency rose sharply at the beginning of the Asian trading session, after reports that Johnson and Johnson temporarily suspended trials of the COVID-19 vaccine. Due to an unexplained illness of one of the participants in the final stage of the trial. This news reduced investors' risk appetite triggered an increase in demand for the American currency, which is viewed as a defensive asset. Now the demand for the US dollar has weakened somewhat, but the general trend continues.
The comments of some representatives of the ECB, who speak of a slowdown in the recovery of the European economy, can also have a negative impact on the European currency. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that economic indicators indicate a slowdown in growth, but the regulator will consider options for a possible adjustment of monetary policy only after receiving new economic forecasts in December.
Today in the EU the focus will be on the ZEW indexes for Germany. Experts expect a decline in all indices.
In the US, the main economic news of the day will be the publication of the report on consumer price indexes for September. In our view, the impact of this event on the market will be subdued, as the Fed has changed its approach to inflation targeting. It is worth expecting a strong market reaction only in case of a strong deviation of the actual indicators from the forecasts.
After breaking through the 1.1800 level, the bulls were unable to build on the success. The currency pair dropped below this mark again, which increases the likelihood of a rollback movement in the direction of the 1.1755 level. The bullish scenario will be relevant after the breakout of intraday resistance at 1.1815. In this case, we can see a local rise to 1.1865.
Resistance levels: 1.1815, 1.1865, 1.1905, 1.2010.
The main scenario is a decline to 1.1755.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of the resistance at 1.1815 and growth to 1.1865.
The current fundamental background is neutral. Consider shorts near the level of 1.1815.
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