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EUR / USD: we expect growth of volatility at the end of the trading day

Bad news on COVID-19 continues to come from Europe, but EUR / USD is trading in the green today, thanks to lower dollar pressure.

 

The Robert Koch Institute today released data according to which in Germany over the past 24 hours a record death rate from COVID-19 - 131 people - was registered in the last 6 months. The number of infected also continues to grow. On Monday, 15,352 new cases of infection were detected, up from 12,097 a day earlier. The increase in the incidence may lead to a tightening of quarantines in Europe's leading economy.

 

The dollar index in Asia lost about 0.2% of its value. Investors fixed part of the long positions in the dollar before the start of the main voting day in the US presidential elections. According to opinion polls, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is confidently ahead of the incumbent President Donald Trump, but the likelihood of the incumbent's victory remains high due to the uncertainty of the voting results in some states.

 

With the beginning of the American session of cottage cheese and on Wednesday, November 4, a significant increase in volatility can be expected, when the interim results of exit polls begin to enter the market. But the peculiarity of this election is that a record number of Americans voted by mail. The winner of the main voting day and these exit polls may end up not winning the election after processing the votes cast by mail.

 

A pullback movement is developing on the chart. The price has renewed its yesterday's high. We are waiting for the growth of quotations to resistance at 1.1700 and a decline under 1.1610.

 

  • Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1755, 1.1785.

 

  • Support levels: 1.1635, 1.1600, 1.1500.

 

The main scenario - rise to 1.1700 and a downward reversal.

 

An alternative scenario - decline below 1.1600 from current levels.

 

The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts from the level of 1.1700.

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