The EUR / USD pair is trading with a slight decline on Thursday (-0.1%). Trading is going on rather calmly, as the market is experiencing a shortage of important economic and geopolitical news that could increase volatility.
The main focus of investors is on news related to COVID-19 and the impact of the pandemic on the economy. The dollar strengthened its position in the market as investors adjusted their optimistic expectations for the COVID-19 vaccine. Obviously, even if the vaccine is started, it will take a very long time to produce the required number of doses. The global economy will also take a significant amount of money and time to recover, as the pandemic has hit hard. At least until the end of 2020 and early 2021, the pandemic will hold back the global economic recovery, especially in the regions most affected by the second wave of COVID-19.
Moderate pressure on the European currency is exerted by the ECB's statements made yesterday on expanding the asset buyback program and increasing the volume of loans to stimulate the economies of the Union countries.
Today in the economic calendar, the main focus will be on the US inflation data for October. Also US weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published today.
The bearish signals still prevail on the chart. Support at 1.1785 has been broken. The next target for the decline is the level 1.1700.
The main scenario - an increase to 1.1800 and a decline to 1.1700.
Alternative scenario - a consolidation above 1.1800 and growth to 1.1830
The current fundamental outlook is moderately negative. We consider shorts from the levels 1.1830 and 1.1800.
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