Gold rallied Friday morning in Asia as a second wave of coronavirus increasingly stifles economic activity in Europe, the United States and elsewhere.
Investors are revising their optimistic expectations after reports of successful vaccine trials from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech earlier in the week. Obviously, the massive use of the vaccine will begin no earlier than spring 2021. Even if all tests are successfully completed, producing the required number of doses will take a very long time. The global economy still has some very difficult months ahead of it, after which a gradual and long-term recovery will begin.
In an online forum hosted by the ECB this week, the governors of the world's three leading central banks (the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England) warned the market against being overly optimistic about the successful trials of the COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine will not be able to quickly cure the global economy, which has been hit hard by the pandemic and continues to be under pressure. The most developed regions of the world, the USA and Europe, have been hit particularly hard.
The protracted negotiations on the formation of a new stimulus package for the US economy continue to have a restraining effect on gold. Most experts believe that the new package of economic assistance measures will increase pressure on the dollar, giving gold a good chance of resuming a steady bullish trend.
There is no important news in the economic calendar today. Producer price index data is likely to have a modest effect on trading. Geopolitical news will remain in the spotlight.
On the chart, the price goes to retest the local resistance at 1884.00. The level will most likely be broken. In this case, we can expect a moderate growth in quotations towards the level of 1900.00.
The main scenario - a breakdown of resistance at 1884.00 and growth to 1900.00.
An alternative scenario - a breakdown of the support at 1867.00 and a decline below 1853.00.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs from the level of 1867.00.
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