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GBP / USD may fall by 5% in case of Brexit without trade agreement

GBP / USD is holding in positive territory despite Brexit uncertainty. Apparently, most investors continue to believe that London and Brussels will sign a trade agreement at the very last moment and Brexit will be “civilized”. But, according to many experts, the parties may never come to a common agreement and the UK may leave the EU without having a trade agreement with its main economic partner.


A survey conducted by Bloomberg showed that in the event of a tough Brexit scenario, the pound could fall against the dollar by more than 5%. At the same time, the basic scenario of the development of the situation assumes the conclusion of an agreement. In this case, the currency pair may rise to the 2019 highs, to the 1.35 area.


There is no important news in the UK economic calendar today. Investors will follow the news about Brexit and the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.


Regarding the chart, buyers are still unable to cope with the resistance at 1.3230. Until this level is broken through, the scenario with the growth of quotations to the 1.3300 area is considered as an alternative.


  • Resistance levels: 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3350;


  • Support levels: 1.3150, 1.3110, 1.3065.


The main scenario is a decline to 1.3150 and an upward reversal.


An alternative option is a breakdown of resistance at 1.3230 and an increase to 1.3300.


The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider longs from the level of 1.3150.

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