Oil is trading in different directions today, holding in a fairly narrow range. Rising crude oil inventories and lower retail sales in the US have raised concerns over fuel demand. As a compensating factor, there are reports that the OPEC + countries will postpone the planned increase in oil production in January.
This morning, API released data on reserves, according to which the level of reserves for the week increased by 4.17 million barrels. The market expected more modest growth in the indicator. The data, along with the retail sales report released yesterday, heighten fears that fuel demand in the US could fall sharply amid the second wave of the pandemic.
OPEC countries are beginning to respond to signs of a slowdown in the recovery in energy demand. Saudi Arabia has publicly called on other members of the OPEC + group, including Russia, to be flexible in responding to changes in the oil market. Obviously, in the current environment, OPEC countries will need to tighten production policy requirements in 2021.
The next benchmark for the market will be the meetings of the OPEC + monitoring group on November 30 and December 1. OPEC + members are inclined to postpone the previously agreed plan to increase production by 2 million barrels per day from 2021, which is approximately equal to 2% of global demand.
Today, investors will be watching the release of data on oil and oil products from the EIA.
There have been no significant changes on the chart for the last 24 hours. Trades are still held in the horizontal channel 41.10-42.10. Today we expect further development of the flat trend.
The main scenario is consolidation in the range of 41.10-42.10.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 42.10 and an increase to 43.20.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider longs from the level of 41.10.
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