Gold prices are rising on Monday, driven by a weaker dollar and lingering economic and geopolitical risks.
The focus of the market is mainly on news from the US. First, investors are closely monitoring changes in the epidemiological situation in the United States. Many experts predict a worsening of the situation in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving on November 26. Over the weekend, the head of the US government's operation "Warp Speed" Moncef Sloughi said that the largest vaccination program of the population could begin in the United States on December 11. Also, a number of media outlets reported that on December 1, a vaccination program for the population could begin in the UK. EU countries are ready to approve a vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech companies in mid-December.
Second, investors continue to follow the political confrontation in the United States. Donald Trump has so far refused to admit defeat in the election, despite Biden's landslide victory. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is actively forming a team that will work with them. According to media reports, the main candidate for the post of head of the State Department is Biden's longtime associate Anthony Blinken, and ex-FRS head Janet Yellen may become the new finance minister.
A new US economic stimulus program remains an important issue for gold. Negotiations between Democrats and Republicans are deadlocked. The decision-making process on this issue may be postponed until January 2021. This is a negative signal for the precious metal.
Today the main attention of investors will be focused on the news of the economy. In Europe and the US, preliminary data on manufacturing and services PMI for November will be published. These data will show the degree of influence of the new wave of the pandemic on the economy and may have a key impact on the dynamics of the market movement this week.
On Friday, the price rose above 1870.00. This is a good signal for the further development of the upward movement towards the level of 1884.00.
The main scenario is growth to 1884.00.
An alternative scenario is a decline below 1865.00 and a retest at 1853.00.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs in the area of the level of 1865.00.
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