Today the EUR / USD pair is declining moderately after a strong rise in quotes on Thursday. The correctional decline is due to both the influence of purely technical factors (many investors fix long positions after updating many monthly trading highs), and the influence of fundamental factors.
In Europe, investors continue to closely follow the progress of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Recently the office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that trade negotiations with the EU are in a "serious situation" and that an agreement will not be reached unless the Europeans significantly change their position on a number of key issues. Later, a spokesman for Johnson added that most likely after Brexit, the parties will cooperate within the framework of the WTO rules.
Reuters reported that new information from the negotiating group will be provided to representatives of the EU countries closer to lunchtime today.
The dollar today was able to restore some of the previously lost positions, but remains vulnerable to the adoption of a new package of measures to stimulate the economy. Large-scale cash infusions from the Fed and the government will increase the pressure on the national currency. On Thursday, lawmakers agreed that the adoption of the bill on new incentive measures can no longer be delayed. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said bipartisan lawmakers may have to work over the weekend to get him through Congress.
In the economic calendar today it is worth paying attention to the publication of IFO indices for Germany. A moderate decline in the business climate index and the current situation assessment index is expected.
Germany today announced a new anti-record for the number of new cases of COVID-19 infection per day - 33,777 people.
The bullish wave continues to develop on the chart. There are no signals to reverse the price movement down yet. We are waiting for the growth of quotations to the level of 1.2300.
Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2385, 1.2410.
Support levels: 1.2225, 1.2195, 1.2100.
The main scenario is growth in the direction of 1.2300.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of intraday support at 1.2225 and a decline to 1.2165.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider longs from the level of 1.2225.
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