The EUR / USD pair rose 0.2% in Asia today in response to reports that the US House of Representatives approved a bill to raise stimulus payments to $ 2,000 per person. The bill has been submitted to the Senate, where the prospects for its approval remain uncertain.
Raising stimulus payments to $ 2,000 would increase household aid spending by about $ 464 billion. A further increase in stimulating programs is expected to lead to a weakening of the national currency. Investors are increasing the volume of short positions in the US dollar. According to Reuters calculations, based on data released on Monday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, short positions in the dollar rose to $ 26.6 billion in the week ending December 21. This is the highest level in 3 months.
In Europe, news about the coronavirus and the upcoming Brexit remains in the spotlight. According to Reuters, 200 million doses of Pfizer vaccine will be distributed in the EU by the first quarter of 2021. Investors are hoping that thanks to vaccinations, the virus can be brought under control, but it is obvious that the vaccination process will drag on for many months.
On Monday, EU Permanent Representatives unanimously approved the provisional application of the trade agreement with the UK from 1 January 2021. This news had no impact on trading.
There are no important events in the US and EU economic calendar today.
On the chart, buyers are increasing upward pressure to 1.2250. We are waiting for the breakdown of this mark and the growth of quotations to 1.2300.
The main scenario is an increase to 1.2300.
An alternative scenario is a decline from 1.2250 to 1.2160.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs from the level of 1.2210.
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