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EUR / USD may fall below 1.21 today

The EUR / USD pair is currently trading with a slight decline against the background of a moderate strengthening of the dollar.


The dollar index is recovering from yesterday's losses. The US currency was under pressure from the statements of the head of the FRS Jerome Powell that the regulator intends to maintain a soft monetary policy for a long period of time. Powell denied all rumors about a possible reduction in the asset buyback program, noting that this issue is not currently on the agenda. In general, Powell's comments were quite expected; earlier this week, other Fed officials also stated the need to maintain the current parameters of monetary policy.


US President-elect Joe Biden this morning unveiled a new $ 1.9 trillion stimulus program. dollars. The market reaction was very restrained as the program was in line with the general expectations of investors.


The Fed's soft policy and new fiscal stimulus measures will increase the pressure on the dollar in the long term, but locally, the American currency remains in position due to the growth in the yield of American treasuries. For the first time since March 2020, the yield curve for 10-year securities is holding above 1%.


There is no important news in the European economic calendar today. News related to the coronavirus pandemic remains in the spotlight in Europe. Recently the Minister of Economy of Germany Peter Altmeier said that the situation with the pandemic is developing according to the worst scenario. At the same time, the president of the Robert Koch Institute in Germany noted that the situation with the pandemic will be taken under control only by the end of 2021.


In the US economic calendar, the main event of the day will be the publication of the December retail sales report.


The bearish signals prevail locally on the chart. Sellers are increasing pressure to the level of 1.2135. Today we expect the price to drop below 1.2100.


  • Resistance levels: 1.2255, 1.2275, 1.2335.


  • Support levels: 1.2135, 1.2050, 1.1920.


The main scenario is a decline below 1.2100 and an upward correction.


Alternative scenario is growth to 1.2255 from the current levels.


The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts from the level of 1.2175.

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