Oil today shows mixed trading dynamics despite the publication of positive data from the API on reserves.
According to the presented report for the week, the level of oil reserves in the United States fell by 2.5 million barrels. These data increase the likelihood of a more positive report from the EIA being published today, in which experts predicted an increase in the level of reserves by almost 1 million barrels.
The data on the dynamics of stocks is another confirmation of the fact that a supply deficit is gradually forming on the market. The premium for the next month for the coming contracts for WTI and Brent continues to grow.
Despite the general positive of the market, many investors still began to fix long positions in oil after a continuous seven-day rally. Any rise in prices has a side-line, and many fear that with a further rise in energy prices, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries may cancel or reduce the current restrictions on production earlier than previously announced. This could put significant pressure on oil prices.
On the chart, the main attention should be paid to the level 58.35. While the price remains below this mark, we consider the scenario with the development of a deep correctional movement as a priority. Otherwise, we are waiting for the growth of quotations to around 59.00.
The main scenario is a decline to 56.50.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 58.35 and growth to 59.00.
The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider shorts with very moderate risks from the level of 58.35.
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